Golf Bet Profits – Week 10
21 March
Five selections were made in two tournaments this week with a small loss made, but oh so close to making a substantial profit.
In the Transitions Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida, there were three each-way selections, Bill Haas, Sean O’Hair and Justin Rose. There is little to be said about the first two, who both missed the cut after the second round. Justin Rose, however, very nearly carried off the winners’ trophy, only to return his worst round in the last to finish fifth, along with five other golfers.
Shooting one under in the first, he returned a 65 in the second to tie in fifth, then another 65 in the third to lead the pack on 200, 13 under par. Chasing him were Webb Simpson and Brendon de Jonge on 201 with Gary Woodland and Scott Stallings on 202. Another four players were chasing these on 203. Rose had five par scores and a birdie in his first six holes in the final round before making four bogies in a row, returning to the clubhouse three over for the day. I did note his odds on Betfair during the last two rounds, which came down from 41.0 to 3.1 before the last round. A one-point hedge at this stage would have grossed an 11.31 points profit, so his 10/1 for finishing fifth should not have made much difference to the profit…but more of that later.
The European Tour competition was the Sicilian Open held at the Donnafugata Golf Resort and Spa in which we had two bets. Similar to the USA Tour, one player, Danny Willett, missed the cut after the second round, finishing 88th. Chris Wood fared much better with a four under-par 67 to tie in fifth in the first round, but gradually lost his momentum as the competition progressed, his last two holes delayed due to bad light, a reason we hear a lot more of in cricket matches. He eventually finished with a four over-par last round of 75 to tie on 34th.
Net result in monetary terms should have been a one-point profit as a result of Justin Rose’s 10/1 place. However, the major bookmakers, in this case Bet365, divide the odds by the number of players tying on the same score so they reduced the odds to 2/1, giving us a two-point win on Rose and an overall loss of six points. The author likes to produce results showing the worst case scenario, but it is possible to shop around for a bookmaker who does pay out at the advertised odds of 10/1.
Personally I find this quite odd. You are backing one player to finish in a certain set of positions, which he does, then get penalised because others players finish on the same score! You are not talking about a pot specifically designated for one finishing position or another, you are backing one player. Excuse the ranting but I would seriously consider throwing my lot in with Betfair.
These results disappoint but illustrate how much greater it could have been if our two best players over the weekend had better final rounds.
The Transitions Championship
Bet Stake Odds Result P/L
Bill Haas EW 1pt 40/1 Lost -2
Justin Rose EW 1pt 40/1 Placed +2
Sean O’Hair EW 0.5pts 70/1 Lost -1
The Sicilian Open
Chris Wood EW 1.5pts 20/1 Lost -3
Danny Willett EW 1pt 40/1 Lost -2
Week 10 profit/loss = -6 points
Running Bank after Week 10 = 215.62 points (plus 15.62 points)
Best Regards
Sergeant John
