Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser – Day 8
15th October 2011
Hi Bloggers, Sgt Colin here with the 8th day’s results for TFT The Paper Chaser.
Day 8 saw a small number of qualifying bets – mostly in the Bundesliga. None of the matches were compelling selections – but in the end I selected 2, an exercise which taught me something valuable – be disciplined in making selections.
Eintracht Frankfurt @ Bochum
Bought Frankfurt at 2.08, Closed out at 2.06 – Gain of 0.92 points. The gain was slightly higher at one point, but I let the bet run until the specified close.
Dortmund @ Werder Bremen
Layed Dortmund @2.30. Not a lot happened for a while – but all of a sudden their odds shortened sharply, falling as low as 2.14. I closed out at the stop loss position of 2.22. Loss of 2.77 points.
I was guilty on both of these bets of trying to justify making a bet – without compelling evidence to do so, and ended up in the red for the day. 50% hit rate, loss of 1.8 points (ROI of -0.9%).
8 days gone for The Paper Chaser
17 selections, 11 winners, 6 losers (65% hit rate).
Cumulative gain 23.32 points,
Betting bank 1023.32 (from 1000 start point).
ROI (based on 1700 points invested) – +1.37%.
So what have I learned so far:
1) you need to ensure that you stay disciplined in bet selection
2) a bot is useful for stop loss management, as odds can move against you rapidly if you rely upon regular reviews
3) it pays to keep monitoring on a fairly regular basis during the day to spot changes
4) risk varies significantly based on the odds – see below
5) ROI is not necessarily a true measure of risk – see below – but could be a guide to how much you need to stake to make this approach profitable.
The ROI figure is based upon the initial stake (or liability) which is always 100 points. However, if you apply a stop loss properly, the true liability is only a fraction of that. Whilst the system recommends a 6 point stop loss, I’ve applied different stop losses depending upon the initial odds for the trade. For example a stop loss of 6 points for a trade at odds of 1.2 puts far more of your bank at risk than 6 points at odds of 2.2.
What the ROI figure is useful for though, is indicating that in order to make this pay you may need to use large stakes ( have a large bank) – even though you won’t really be putting all the funds at risk. For example, Day 7 was very successful, but I had to initially stake 500 points to make 22.8 points. At £1 per point that would mean I had to stake £500 and made £22.80 – not a great gain for the time spent. The risk was nowhere near £500 though – more like £25, so if you have the funds, it is not unreasonable to use high stakes, and attempt to make higher returns.
Still plenty of time to go in the trial to assess whether Day 7 was a one off, or repeatable by applying a disciplined approach.
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