Lay The Best – Final Review Summary

Failed and Duly JAILED!

 

Lay the Best Final Review

Results To Download – Period 13th November 2009 – 12th February 2010

Horses Only –

Sports Only –

All Results –

Hi Bloggers

Well what has been an eventful 3 months for the review of this service now draws to a close; we stopped receiving selections after Thursday the 12^th February.

Before going on to the finale I would just like to quickly wrap up last week from  February 7^th to 12^th there was 13 selections (Including 2 football) of which 9 were winners for the service (2 were DUP) resulting in a very small profit + 0.66 points.

Now onto the final review I have enclosed 3 spreadsheets with this review, they cover All Selections, Horses Only and Sports Only; I have split each spreadsheet into 3 months. Because we started the review on the 13^th November, our months will be as follows:

        1^st Month = 13^th November to 12^th December

        2^nd Month = 13^th December to 12^th January

        3^rd Month = 13^th January to 12^th February

Right when our review of “Lay the Best” service started it covered horse racing and sports, although things started off brightly for the first 5 days of the trial by the 18^th November the running bank was in the red and for the most part that’s where it remained for the following months ending up with a final total of minus 22.87 points. It was pointed out at that time that LTB should stick to what the service knew best, horses and that there was far to many sports selections, although the horses actually lost in our 1st month so did the sports bets too, there after the only part of the service to make a profit in the remaining months was the horses

Here’s the breakdown:

	All Selections	Horses	Sports
1st Month	minus 18.84pts	minus 13.70 pts	minus 5.14 pts
2nd Month	minus 0.68 pts	plus 8.18 pts	minus 8.86 pts
3rd Month	minus 3.35 pts	plus 18.97 pts	minus 22.32
TOTAL	minus 22.87 pts	plus 13.45 pts	minus 36.32

 So in the 3 months taking all selections there was 365 bets of which 148 were losers for the service this is a strike rate of only 59.45%. These 365 bets were split as follows:

	Horses
	Selections	Losing Bets	Strike Rate
1st Month	47	20	57.47%
2nd Month	38	12	68.49%
3rd Month	58	13	77.58%
TOTALS	143	45	68.54%
	Sports
	Selections	Losing Bets	Strike Rate
1st Month	81	37	54.35%
2nd Month	109	48	55.86%
3rd Month	32	18	43.74%
TOTALS	222	103	53.61%

Now an e-mail was sent out by LTB on December 1^st saying that were going to be more stringent with there selections and concentrate on what they knew best which was horse racing as you can see by our figures there was actually more selections especially in the sports part.

Finally on the 23^rd January LTB said they would only be doing horse racing selections from then on and the occasional football bet, to be fair to the service they have stuck by this. But here is the downer LTB removed all the 68 Sports selections from there January results which at the time was costing them 23.93 points. With this minus 23.93 points out of the way they were able to claim January as a winning month. Because they are now concentrating on horses only LTB did ask us to only concentrate on these results for the review, but how can we for over 2 months we received there sports selections the same as any of there clients who were with them during this time.

There was a guarantee when we started the review where LTB were offering a free month if the previous month showed a loss, in December by there own admission in the results on there webpage they showed a loss. Did they give a free month? no. Now the website says that if they fail to show a profit over a 6 month period they will refund there clients subscriptions.

Before delivering the final verdict and why, lets be fair and look at the horse results yes they are showing signs of improvement and it did produce 13.45 points profit over the 3 months which is an ROI of 9.40% not bad considering the time of year etc, but here’s the catch how much do you put on a lay bet level stakes?

In a survey conducted by James’s old site the average bet for the bloggers was 20 pounds on a Win bet and a fiver on a lay. Well the monthly subscription for LTB is 50 pounds the average layers got no chance of profiting, lets take the 30 pound per point stake which the LTB managed account accepts as minimum for its service, what kind of ROI would you get then?. 13.45 points x 30 pounds equals 403.50 pounds minus 150 pounds total fees = 253.50 pounds this equals when rounded down an ROI of just 5.91%. Also you have to wait just before the off to ensure the horses ISP price is no greater than 4/1 or invest more money in an autobot, is it worth it.?

    You will probably see that the loss incurred by LTB’s own figures in the spreadsheet is less than mine, well 3 horses given by them in December had an ISP of greater than 4/1 they said that an e-mail was sent telling us to forget the price restriction on these horses but I never received it and James asked several Lay the best members and they also never received it. Paul though has conceded the error by email with James. So they do not count.

All my horse racing selections are to BFSP when working out losses etc, where LTB get there figures I do not know. Of course with the sports selections there is bound to be discrepancies because of the times of some of the events.

     In conclusion taking into consideration the following:

(1)   A loss of 22.87 points over the 3 months review.

(2)   Changing guarantee once a losing month occurred.

(3)   Removing sports selections from January results even though they were given to clients who would have lost money on them.

(4)   High subscription costs per month.

(5)    Low ROI, unless you are a large stake layer.

(6)   Erratic prices for the Betfair odds they are not BFSP ones.

(7)   Failure to achieve the strike rate advertised on the LTB website

The highest obtained for All Selections was 65.57 %( 3rd Month)

The reviewers recommendation for this service is FAILED, if the horses can carry on with the improved results and achieve a higher points profit per month, and some of the other issues that have occurred during this review period  be eradicated, then maybe sometime in the future the service could be reviewed again. I hope you have found this review helpful.

Regards

Reviewer X

Failed and Duly JAILED!