Zero Risk Trader Day 4
21st August 2013
Sgt Flavell – Reviews Zero Risk Trader
This review covers Wednesday 21st August 2013.
Hi bettingsystemtruths.com readers,
This is my first full day of paper trading.
The program generated many high value trades the details of which, including the odds, monies to be placed and where, and ROI, were updated in real time. The twelve that I followed and (paper) traded on at approximately 30 mins before the off are documented below. The twelve trades that I selected were the ones with the highest ROI (usually >10%). Because I was not at my computer all the time some of the trades were not placed at exactly 30 minutes before the off. My experience of using this program is the trade details change, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse, leading up to the off.
Having built the spread sheet of all the day’s activities, most importantly, recording the liability at any point in time, I decided on the following staking plan. These stakes are 2 times larger than the conservative ones I suggested yesterday and represent (as a best guess, at this point in the review) the most profitable fixed stakes based on a starting bank of 500 points with Betfair allowing for (1) trades to be made 30 mins before the off (2) an approximate maximum of 4 concurrent trades (3) reduced risk of having to move monies between accounts.
Of course, this fixed stake could be increased (1) if less concurrent trades are allowed, which, for example, could be achieved, without reducing the total number of trades, if the trades were made closer than 30 mins to the off (2) when the bank gets bigger.
An adaptive staking policy whereby the amount staked is dependent on the ROI would be more profitable. The program does generate trades which are greater that 100% ROI, it makes sense to trade more on these that on, for example 10% ROI trades.
| Odds up to 7/1 | stake 10 points e/w |
| Odds from 15/2 -> 16/1 | stake 6 points e/w |
| Odds from 16/1 -> 25/1 | stake 4 points e/w |
| Odds from 25/1 or more | stake 2 point e/w |
*Note, this table updated on 23/08/2013
I have decided to use the format used by zero risk trader to report the results rather than the one I suggested yesterday. For my own records I keep details of how much is being held with each bookmaker and will add comments to these daily reviews when monies have needed to be moved/recycled between bookmakers.
| Date | Time | Course | Horse | Betfair lay odds | profit | Bank total | comment |
| 1000 |
starting bank |
||||||
| 21/08/2013 | 14:30 | York | Lady Lara | 25 | 0 | 1000 | |
| 14:30 | York | Treaty of Paris | 19.5 | 6.18 | 1006.18 | ||
| 14:45 | Musselburgh | Kanos Ghirl | 4.2 | 0 | 1003.09 | ||
| 14:55 | Lingfield Park | Zaminate | 12 | 0 | 1003.09 | ||
| 15:40 | York | Declaration of War | 11.5 | 5.52 | 1011.70 | ||
| 15:40 | York | Hillstar | 14.5 | 0 | 1008.61 | ||
| 16:00 | Bellestown | White Mike | 20 | 0 | 1008.61 | ||
| 16:20 | York | Eagle Rock | 16 | 0 | 1008.61 | ||
| 16:40 | Lingfield Park | Jive | 14 | 15.92 | 1027.62 | ||
| 17:50 | Lingfield Park | Officer Drivel | 14.5 | 6.16 | 1033.78 | ||
| 20:00 | Warwick | Eyeline | 25 | void | |||
| 20:00 | Warwick | Loucal | 4.9 | void |
*profit and Bank total rounded to the 2nd decimal place **Note, this table updated on 23/08/2013 *** table updated on 24/08/2013
I have shown the nil profit and void trades in the table for this day’s review and won’t in the future in order to make the following points (1) the nil profit trades are useful, in terms of the system dynamics, in that they move monies from the bookmakers to the exchange meaning that a) the bookmakers see that you are loosing some bets b) recovering monies from the exchanges carries less risk of you account being limited/closed so better your money is in your exchange account (2) the void trades were genuine trades until horses (not the ones being traded on) were withdrawn making the trades void, the lesson here is, to make sure that the trade is zero risk, you need to be aware of what makes a trade void. I believe that the program was still advertising this trade when it was in fact void.
I don’t see any comments against my posts, please ask away, let me know if you want different information included in the daily reviews or if you have any questions.
[Click here to see Zero Risk Trader]
Regards,
